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Wisdom from Arnold Kling

Arnold Kling has a great post on some important principles of economics that I want to quote here in entirety:

What would I consider to be some important principles of economics that I want my students to walk away with?

1. Market processes promote long-term growth. The market processes of specialization, exploiting comparative advantage, and creative destruction have benefits that are widely dispersed in the long run. These processes impose short-term costs on those who have invested in physical and human capital made obsolete.

2. Competition is a regulatory mechanism. For example, the ability of a business to exploit consumers or workers is attenuated by competitive forces. Businesses do not like competition. They lobby for policies that stifle competition. Often, such lobbying is successful. Competition is far from perfect as a regulatory mechanism. It is possible to be too optimistic about how well it can work. It is also possible to be too optimistic about the prospects for fixing the flaws in markets using government regulation.

3. Human cooperation is difficult to achieve. The conditions under which large organizations can operate without internal friction are never satisfied. Aligning incentives is more difficult in the real world than it might appear to be in the abstract.

4. Economists need two hands. The conditions under which markets will produce optimal outcomes are never satisfied. The conditions under which a government official can act as an omniscient, benevolent central planner are never satisfied.

Note on last econ discussion

The last econ discussion was about the role of health in economic development. Overall, the presentation was pretty informative and interesting, and the invited speaker, who is a UCI econ grad student, is very friendly and open to questions. There is one issue I want to clarify though.  At the end of the discussion, we talked about the economics of healthcare in general. I raised my hand and asked a question: “how is the healthcare market different from other markets?”. The speaker responded that the healthcare market is different because externalities (a form of market failure) are prevalent so government needs to intervene to correct this failure. When I asked for an example, the speaker brought up obesity. Her reasoning is as follows: since obese people are more likely to have life-threatening diseases (such as heart diseases, diabetes, cancer, etc.), their healthcare expenses are probably much higher than those of normal people over their life time. This in turn has a “spillover” effect on insurance premium: insurance companies must increase their fees on everyone else to cover the high cost of those obese people. The “externality” here is the monetary damage on the non-obese insurance buyers, who do not do anything to deserve the hike in their insurance premium. I then asked the speaker: “if that’s an ‘externality’, then we can see it in all other markets, not just healthcare. For example, when a large number of people suddenly love to eat rice, their purchase of rice will push the price of rice up, making the rest of us worse off since we will have to incur more cost than before to obtain the same amount of rice”. The speaker then said: “it’s not an externality, it’s just supply and demand”. To which I replied: “then the obesity example is also supply and demand. Obese people simply increase the demand for healthcare, thus increasing the insurance premium. I think the real problem with the healthcare market is information asymmetry, not externality”. The speaker then said: “information asymmetry is just a kind of externality”. The conversation ended there as we had limited time and other questions to cover.

Now, how do we make sense of the conversation above? Is “obesity” with its “spillover” effect on insurance premium an “externality”? Or is it something else? Technically, it is not wrong to argue that the effect is an “externality”. But how about my example of the rice market? Is it a kind of externality too? Well, it is. But these “externalities” do not have the implication that our speaker assumed (resource misallocation). Yes they are “externalities”, but are they “market failures”? The answer is probably not. There are two kinds of externality: pecuniary externality and technical (or real) externality. Both of our cases fall into the former category, which is pecuniary externality. A pecuniary externality is one that operates through prices, not real resources. A pecuniary externality is generally not considered a market failure as it has offsetting effects. In my rice example, the increase in price would disadvantage the rice buyers, but would advantage the rice sellers. The “negative externality” on the buyers are offset by the “positive externality” on the sellers. Similarly in the obesity case, the “negative externality” on the insurance buyers is offset by the “positive externality” on the insurance providers (through higher insurance premium). This is very different from a “real” externality case, where usually no such offsetting effect is present. The “real” externality (or technical externality) is the standard market failure we learn in econ classes: non-compensated, direct resource effects imposed on a third party. A barbecue at your house may emit harmful smoke to a neighbor next door. Your smoking cigarette may make me sick. These are externalities that cannot be offset (or easily offset) by the same price mechanism as in the aforementioned pecuniary externality cases.

So there is nothing wrong with the healthcare market? Not necessarily. According to standard economics, healthcare insurance suffers from a kind of market failure called “information asymmetry”. The basic idea is that when one party in an exchange has more information than the other, the market will be “mispriced”, resulting in loss of beneficial trades. In a typical health insurance model, the insured knows more about his/her own health than the insurer. Therefore, those with higher risks tend to buy more insurance while those with lower risks tend to buy less. The insurer, presumably not being able to differentiate the high risk people with the low risk ones, charges the same premium to all customers, based on the average risk of the whole group. The result is that those with higher than average risks will buy insurance and those with less than average risks will opt out. Consequently, the insurer cannot cover the healthcare costs because the premium only reflects the average risk while all of its customers have higher than average risks. This forces the insurer to increase the premium, which in turn drives more customers out of the market. The problem here is not merely that low-risk customers are made worse off, as the “externality” narrative suggests. The true problem here is that both parties (the insurer and the insured) are made worse off as fewer than potential trades are made. If the insurer knew the true risk of each customer (no information asymmetry), it would charge different premiums to different people. As a result, those with higher risks would not necessarily drive out those with lower risks as the two groups would pay different levels of premium. The information asymmetry model in health insurance is based on a debatable assumption: that insurers cannot differentiate risky customers from safe ones. Whether this assumption is true or not is up to empirical evidence to decide.

To those interested, here is a good overview of information asymmetry by Professor Bryan Caplan. If you are looking for a balanced view with fresh analysis and great insights into the healthcare market in the US, I recommend Crisis of Abundance by Arnold Kling. The book is a dispassionate study of what is wrong with healthcare in the US and what options and trade-offs we should consider when trying to solve the problem.

Links on the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics

So this year’s Nobel in economics is rewarded to three people: Eugene Fama, Robert Shiller, and Lars Hansen, who have contributed a great deal to our understanding of asset prices. Those interested in financial economics and would love to know more what this year’s Nobel is about can take a look at some links below:

- David Henderson’s short overview of the three Nobel Laureates

- Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution, as usual, writes about the econ Nobel prize:

- John Cochrane has three great detailed posts on the three Nobel Laureates:

- In case you love to have a more comprehensive and deeper understanding of the Nobel, here’s the Nobel Committee’s Understanding Asset Prices paper for Fama, Shiller, and Hansen.

- Mark Thoma has a great compilation of links about the Nobel

Welcome Back!

Welcome Back all you returning Anteaters and Welcome all you incoming freshman and transfer students!

Summer is, well, over and I’m hoping that your summer was a blast (Mine was!). A new academic year is just around the corner. I’m excited though; it’s also a new year at the Econ Society. And rumor has it that the 2013-14 Econ Society Board has a great schedule awaiting us, full of exciting guest speakers, social events and games, and of course Econ Discussions.

Come join the Economics Society Board Members at our wonderful Econ Society Booth at the Involvement Fair (Monday, September 23, 2013 – Welcome Week Day 1).

For all you incoming students and new faces to campus: the Involvement Fair is a great way, well, to get involved on campus, meet new friends, and have fun. Join a club, a couple clubs, maybe more… You’ve got nothing to lose. I’d personally recommend us (The Econ Society). It doesn’t matter if your “green” in economics, aren’t an econ major, or if you’re the economics whiz that chews through economics books during the summer and mows through econ classes during the year, the Economics Society is for everybody and trust me you’ll always learn something and have fun with economics (Yes, I said it. Have fun with economics). The Econ Society is a young club, an ambitious one, a growing one, and above all a “family” – so gives us a try!

For all you returning students who may be also interested in joining Econ Society: it’s never too late. So what are you waiting for? Come and join us!

For all you familiar faces (that is, current and past club members): come and stop by our booth and say hi. (We’d like to know how your summer was. What class are you taking? Etc.)

And lastly, we do have some important information to get out (to prospective, new, and returning members alike) about the club… so come by our Econ Society Booth at Involvement Fair!

Hope to see you all there!

Need to contact us?

 Email EconSociety.UCI@gmail.com

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Hyperinflation in Hell, an Economic Comedy :)

SAVE THE DATE

2014-2015 Year ES KickoffOctober 6th, 2014
2 months to go.

Weekly Events

Mondays 6:30-8:00pm
Location: TBA
See EVENTS tab for more information

ANNOUCEMENT

The 2013-2014 Econ Society Board would like to congratulate all our fellow graduating Senior Anteaters and wish them all the best as they start a new chapter in their lives!

And to all you continuing Anteaters have a wonderful, safe, and relaxing summer! We hope to see you all next year.

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